Royal Birkdale weather conditions will play big part in deciding The Open 2017 winner

Gael-force: Ireland’s Padraig Harrington was in the half of the draw that encountered the worst conditions here in 2008... yet he still emerged as the champion
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John Huggan19 July 2017

Golf Digest, America’s biggest-selling golf magazine, ranks Royal Birkdale second (behind Sunningdale Old) in its list of English courses. But in terms of The Open, the famous Southport links is very much No1 south of the border, certainly according to the players.

“You have to wait 15 holes to get to a par five,” says Padraig Harrington, winner of the last Open here in 2008. “And you have to wait until the 17th before you can walk on to a tee thinking, ‘This is a genuine birdie opportunity’.”

American star Patrick Reed is another fan. “You have to be in complete control of your ball-striking,” he says. “And what I like is that there are so many different ways to play so many of the holes. I stand on the tees and think I could hit anything from a four iron to a driver. It just depends how aggressive I want to be.”

US Open champion Brooks Koepka also likes the lay-out. “I love that the course gives you so many options,” says the big-hitting American. “I won’t be hitting many drivers. So many of the landing areas in front of the greens are fast and allow you to run the ball in, so I am able to lay back a bit off the tee with a 3-wood or a long-iron. I’ll be plotting my way round. I love links golf, it is so special.”

Still, given the worsening weather forecast for later this week, the luck of the draw is more than likely to produce winners and losers. Seven years ago, for example, eventual champion Louis Oosthuizen benefited hugely from playing late on the opening day and very early the next morning. In contrast, Rory McIlroy — starting late on day two — played 17 more shots than he had in his opening round of 63.

“You can kind of cut out half the field, depending on the draw,” says Jordan Spieth. “Most of the time, there’s a group that gets the worst weather — and it’s almost impossible to win in that circumstance. So, there’s nothing you can do about that other than keep your head down, play as well as you can, and see what happens after two days.”

All of which seems to make perfect sense — until you look back to 2008 and the last Open at Royal Birkdale. On the opening day that year, the morning wave had by far the worst of the conditions: driving wind and heavy rain. And, what do you know? One of those out in that awful weather was Harrington who, three days later, won the tournament.

Harrington is one of golf’s most dogged competitors — a fact underlined by his performance nine years ago — but not all are blessed with such determination.

That same year, former Masters champion Sandy Lyle walked off after just 10 holes and with a score of 11 over par. At least he battled on for a hole more than Rich Beem, who quit at the turn 12 over.

As Spieth points out, playing in seriously disadvantageous weather can have a seriously adverse effect on the mind.

“You’ll get guys [giving up] in the middle of a round like that,” he said. “If it’s an afternoon round and the other side has already played in the morning, that’s when it’s really tough because you’re like, ‘I can’t shoot those scores, it’s not possible’. That’s frustrating when you think you can play your best and it doesn’t happen, but it’s the nature of it.”

One thing, though, is certain: the winning score come Sunday will be largely dictated by the weather conditions over the next four days.

Last time at Royal Birkdale, Harrington was three over par for the week and won by four shots. In 1998, eventual champion Mark O’Meara’s level-par total was good enough to get him into a play-off with fellow American Brian Watts. Yet, in 1991, Australian Ian Baker-Finch had to shoot eight under par to see off compatriot Mike Harwood.

Links golf is nothing if not unpredictable.

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