Rugby World Cup 2015: How England can qualify from Pool A

Hopeful: England will be aiming to win their next two matches and secure their place in the quarter-finals
Paul Gilham/Getty Images
Vaishali Bhardwaj28 September 2015

England's last-gasp 25-28 loss to Wales at Twickenham on Saturday left Stuart Lancaster's men teetering on the edge of being knocked out of their own World Cup.

The England coach insisted after the match that his side had not choked against the Welsh, but nevertheless he admitted his team's progression to the quarter-finals now rested on the outcome of their clash with Australia this weekend - and after looking at the current standings in Pool A - otherwise known as the World Cup Pool of Death - it's easy to see why.

England sit in third place in the group three points behind Australia, who lead Pool A with nine points, and Wales, who also have nine points and occupy second place, while Fiji and Uruguay are bottom with no points so far.

Lancaster's side now play Australia at Twickenham on Saturday before facing Uruguay while Wales take on Fiji and then play Australia next week.

While the points system (four for a win) could quite simply tell us now what England's chances of progressing to the quarter-finals are, the permutations are much more complicated as teams can be awarded a point for scoring four or more tries in a game while a beaten side can also secure a point if they lose by seven points or less.

So how can England make it through to the next round of the Rugby World Cup? We look at the possible outcomes below..

Last-gasp: England lost to Wales in the dying minutes of their clash at Twickenham
Getty

England win both matches and Wales win both matches

If Lancaster's side beat both Australia and Uruguay and Wales secure maximum points from their next two matches against Fiji and Australia, then both home nations would go through to the quarter-finals - Wales as group winners and England in second place. Australia would end in third place with nine points (without taking into account bonus points).

England win both matches but Wales beat Fiji and lose to Australia

Should this scenario occur, then England would be safe and would top Pool A with a maximum of 16 points (depending on how many bonus points they secure).

With Australia losing one match, Wales could take second spot behind England although the two teams could also end up tied on 13 points.

England lose to Australia but beat Uruguay and Wales win both matches

This is one permuation that Lancaster will be desperate to avoid as it would almost certainly see the hosts bow out to Wales and Australia.

Should this situation happen, then Wales would top Pool A with either 17 points (without any extra bonus points) or 19 points (again, depending on bonus points gained in both matches). Australia would end in second place with 13 points or 14 if they get a bonus point for scoring four or more tries.

England, unfortunately, would probably finish in third position with 10 or 11 points (if they get an extra point for scoring four or more tries against Uruguay).

The other outcome is that England lose to Australia but get two extra points for scoring four or more tries and losing by seven points or less. That could mean they end with 12 points (or 13 if they can score four or more tries in their second game).

However, that is still likely to see the host nation eliminated.

Key: Stuart Lancaster admits England must beat Australia to keep alive their hopes of staying in the World Cup
David Rogers/Getty Images

England lose to Australia but beat Uruguay and Wales beat Fiji and lose to Australia

This is where things really get tricky. Should Lancaster's side lose to Australia but beat Uruguay and Wales defeat Fiji but - crucially - lose to Australia, then it could see England out. However, it all depends on how many bonus points Wales, Australia and England can get in their last two games.

Five classic Rugby World Cup Matches

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So, the final table - based on this outcome - could look like this:

Wales: 13 points (or 14 if they get a bonus try-scoring point against Fiji) OR 15 points (if they get a bonus point based on losing by seven or less points to Australia).

Australia: 13 points (or 14 if they get a bonus try-scoring point against Wales).

England: 10 points (or 11 if they get a bonus point for scoring four or more tries against Uruguay) OR 12 points (if they manage to score four or more tries and lose by seven tries or less against Australia so get two extra points in their first game) OR 13 points for then securing a bonus-try scoring point against Uruguay.

This situation is still likely to see England go out, which means that Lancaster's side will need to heed his advice and try beat Australia and Uruguay to have any chance of making it to the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals on home soil.

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