How F1 title race could be won and lost: Lewis Hamilton’s form, penalty points and new-look Abu Dhabi circuit

The battle for the 2021 title is one of the closest in Formula One’s rich history, with Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen set to start tomorrow’s qualifying session at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix level on points.

There are all manner of permutations at stake going into the final grand prix weekend of one of the most captivating seasons.

Here’s how a thrilling world championship could be won and lost in Abu Dhabi.

Penalty points

The big talking point has been about the rivals keeping it clean, a DNF for both in the race equating to the title for Verstappen by virtue of his nine grands prix wins to Hamilton’s eight.

Race director Michael Masi has reiterated that drivers would lose championship points if they break the rules.

The most draconian ruling would be a complete exclusion from the championship, as happened to Michael Schumacher in 1997, when he collided with Jacques Villeneuve at the final race of the season.

Lesser punishments could be time penalties akin to the 10 seconds handed to Verstappen following his “erratic” driving at last weekend’s race in Saudi Arabia.

Track changes

Last season, the Yas Marina circuit where this championship will be decided clearly favoured Red Bull, but it has an entirely new look this year after being redesigned.

The old turn seven, approached by a slow chicane (turns five and six) has been replaced by a wide, fast hairpin leading onto the long back straight.

That ought to give drivers different lines in the DRS and hence overtaking zone. Instead of the previous quartet of 90-degree corners on the track is a sweeping corner which has been likened to Monza’s Parabolica.

And the final alteration is at Yas Hotel, where the radius of the corners has been opened up to make it much faster flowing.

The momentum shift

The theory is that track changes further play to the momentum currently held by Hamilton and Mercedes.

The seven-time world champion arrives in Abu Dhabi on the back of a hat-trick of race victories, plus his car is finally quicker than the Red Bull, which has not been the case for much of the season.

Mercedes are adamant it has nothing to do with any late-in-the-season upgrades but that they have finally got to grips with their earlier change to the floor of the car, making it work more to their liking and unlocking a bit more additional performance from it.

The championship fights

The battle between Hamilton and Verstappen could not be simpler. Whoever finishes further up the field wins the title.

While that is what most race fans will be focusing on, for Mercedes and Red Bull their main interest actually lies with the constructors’ championship and the prestige and the money on offer.

Whoever wins will gain £7.5 million more in prize money than their rivals. After a double podium in Saudi Arabia, Mercedes have the edge, with 587.5 points to Red Bull’s 559.5.

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