Coronavirus: What does a pandemic mean and how is it different to an epidemic?

Tom Herbert24 February 2020

Fears are growing that the spread of coronavirus could soon become a worldwide pandemic, amid a sharp rise in diagnoses and deaths.

In recent months an outbreak of the deadly virus, known as covid-19, has plagued most regions in China and has also reached the UK and mainland Europe.

New cases are being reported on a daily basis around the globe, with a seventh person dying in Italy after contracting the disease.

South Korea has reported 231 new cases, taking the total up to 833 and coronavirus-related fatalities to 8.

Meanwhile, 50 people have died in the Iranian city of Qom from the virus, according to reports.

The UK saw four more cases of Covid-19 over the weekend, taking the total number of virus cases to 13.

But what does a pandemic mean and what happens next? Here's everything you need to know.

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What is a pandemic and how close are we to one?

The World Health Organisation (WHO) no longer uses the official term 'pandemic', a spokesman said on Monday, adding that coronavirus remains an international emergency.

Under the old system, a pandemic was declared when a new disease spread to several countries and showed sustained transmission between humans. Some experts say this is obviously happening with coronavirus.

So far, all 13 UK cases have been linked to known cases from Asia, but experts are worried about the emergency of the disease in people with no clear contact with anyone from affected Asian countries, suggesting it is being passed on by people with no symptoms.

Cases meanwhile in Italy have doubled within a few days, with the country now reporting the largest number in Europe.

There is concern that unless the outbreak of the virus is contained within Italy, there could be more rapid spread in other European countries.

The amount of new cases being reported globally and in Europe suggest that we could be facing a pandemic, with the virus spreading to people who have had no connection to China and to other cities.

How does a pandemic differ from an epidemic?

In essence, a pandemic is when a new, infectious disease easily spreads around the world from person to person.

Meanwhile an epidemic is when the spread of an infectious disease is more localised or contained within a region.

Epidemics can become pandemics but not vice versa. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states an epidemic "refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area".

It adds that a "refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people".

What happens next and what has the WHO said?

While the WHO has been advising countries to work on containing the virus, the next step would be to mitigate the impact of continued transmission.

Measures could include social distancing, such as closing schools, nurseries, sporting events and workplaces, and asking people to stay home and avoid public transport.

Health systems would also need to ramp up their plans, such as preparing for the impact more people with Covid-19 would have on intensive care services.

Experts are becoming increasingly concerned that the virus is being spread by asymptomatic people, and that the incubation period for the virus may in fact be longer than 14 days.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, has said: “While it remains the case that most people who become infected will have light symptoms or none at all, such uncontrollable spread would present a serious risk to vulnerable individuals.”

Following the jump in reported cases in Iran, the WHO warned that time is running to stop the situation becoming an international epidemic.

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