You can't stop coronavirus, warns top UK scientist as he says lockdown 'risks even more deaths'

Boris Johnson's top scientist has defended the Government’s battleplan against Covid-19 and said “you can’t stop it”.

Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned that temporarily suppressing the looming epidemic with a four-month “lockdown” would risk it exploding into an even more devastating outbreak next winter.

Longer term, six out of 10 people will need to contract the virus to get “herd immunity”, he added.

“You can’t stop it,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, predicting it is likely to become an annual, seasonal outbreak.

Sir Patrick took to the airwaves as the Government’s strategy to fight coronavirus was facing growing criticism from academics, some medical experts and politicians.

Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance
AP

Writing in the Evening Standard, former health secretary Jeremy Hunt piled pressure on ministers to move swiftly towards tougher action to stop the spread of the disease.

He stressed that countries which appeared to be containing outbreaks, including Singapore, Thailand and Japan, had adopted early measures such as closing schools, travel restrictions and scaling back social activities by older people.

“Why are we allowing visitors to care homes then?” he asked. “Travel bans are a last resort but many people could be encouraged to work from home — and reduce crowding on tubes, buses and trains.

"I hope and trust we will hear more from the Government on these kinds of actions very soon, because short-term inconvenience is infinitely better than the heartbreaking scenes we are now seeing in Italy. The clock is ticking.”

Britain is out of step with many countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, America, Australia, Japan and South Korea in not ordering measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus such as school closures, limiting public transport, cancelling major events, banning flights and even locking down communities.

Sir Patrick, though, argued that the Government’s actions were, in his view, already “quite extreme”.

The seven-day restriction for people with Covid-like symptoms would mean a “large number” of people remaining at home and he signalled that this advice could soon be extended to the whole households in which only one person has these symptoms, and more measures likely to follow, particularly to protect the elderly and individuals with underlying health conditions.

“If you completely locked down absolutely everything, probably for a period of four months or more then you would suppress this virus,” he told Sky News.

“All of the evidence from previous epidemics suggests that when you do that and then you release it, it all comes back again.

“The other part of this is to make sure that we don’t end up with a sudden peak again in the winter which is even larger which causes even more problems.

“So we want to suppress it, not get rid of it completely which you can’t do anyway, not suppress it so we get the second peak and also allow enough of us who are going to get mild illness to become immune to this to help with the whole population response which would protect everybody.”

Boris Johnson, Chief Medical Officer for England, Chris Whitty and Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance
Getty Images

He added that about 60 per cent of people would need to get the virus for herd immunity.

The Prime Minister yesterday announced that people with even mild symptoms which could be coronavirus — a persistent cough or high temperature — should stay at home for seven days.

He also braced many more families across Britain that they face losing loved ones who contract Covid-19.

The grim reality is that hundreds, if not thousands, of people may be killed in Britain by the new virus which is sweeping the world.

Scientists estimate that there are already 5,000 to 10,000 people infected in the UK, with the numbers set to rise sharply, with some level of transmission by people showing no symptoms.

But they also believe it is not as bad as originally feared in January.

A woman wears a mask on the Tube platform
Jeremy Selwyn

The Government is seeking to push the peak of the epidemic into the summer, and to flatten and broaden it, so the NHS is better able to cope and the virus may struggle to spread so easily in warmer weather.

But a growing number of people with medical experience believe ministers, and their key advisers, may be miscalculating the risks and the failure to take early action will worsen the crisis.

In other developments:

  • At least 11 MPs are in self-isolation following coronavirus advice from public health authorities.
  •  New guidance was being put out to nursing and care homes on Covid-19 preparations.
  • New travel advice was being issued for Britons travelling to certain parts of Spain.
  • Italy said 188 people died in just 24 hours, raising the death toll to 1,016.  

Listen to today's episode of The Leader podcast:

European Union interior ministers met to try to thrash out a more co-ordinated response following the shock ban on flights to the US imposed by Donald Trump.

“If we are acting in one way it would be much better for all of us,” said Croatian Interior Minister Davor Bozinovic.

Germany told many nightclubs and schools to close and many football matches to play behind closed doors — including a Euro 2020 warm-up match between Italy and Germany scheduled for March 31.

Portugal imposed limits on the number of people allowed in nightclubs, restaurants and shopping centres. Belgium closed all restaurants, cafes and nightclubs. Norway shut gyms and pools.

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