More hurricane-force storms could hit UK because of climate change, experts warn

Waves whipped up by Hurricane Ophelia crash over the seafront in Penzance.
Getty Images

More hurricane-force storms could hit Britain because of climate change, experts have warned as the UK and Ireland is left reeling from Ophelia.

The storm, which barrelled towards Europe as a category three hurricane before weakening 300 miles off the coast of Britain, killed three people and left hundreds of thousands without power as it hit Ireland with 119mph winds.

It continued to wreak havoc in parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland on Tuesday with railway lines blocked by fallen trees and homes plunged into electricity blackouts.

But the likelihood of this extremely rare occurrence, which set records for the furthest east a major hurricane has ever been observed, could increase in years to come as climate change kicks in, experts have said.

The darkened sky over London as Storm Ophelia arrived in the UK.
AFP/Getty Images

“There is evidence that hurricane-force storms hitting the UK, like Ophelia, will be enhanced in the future due to human-induced climate change,” said Dr Dann Mitchell, a research fellow studying global and regional climate change at the University of Bristol.

He said Ophelia was “a very interesting” storm because it formed in the tropics and moved north. “It was already quite rare,” he said.

“Ocean temperatures are warming up so hurricanes can form further north than they usually do. They normally form just north of the equator, just off the equator. Some form just south.

Hurricane Ophelia - In pictures

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“When they form they generally move west and north towards America but if they are already forming towards the east they could track around and hit Europe before America.

“When the storms get to our latitude they can mix with the atmospheric flow. We have an unstable atmospheric flow – that’s what causes our normal storms – so they can be re intensified by this atmospheric flow.”

Dr Mitchell, who is researching climate change over the past century and next 100 years, added: “We’re not going to see a sudden dramatic change in storms. We may see some change at some point.”

“The UK is not particularly great at storm defences. For instance, in 2013, the storm then crippled the south west of the country. The important thing is for the UK to increase their storm defences.”

Martin Bowles, from the Met Office, said: “It’s never happened exactly like this [Ophelia].

The hurricane weakened as it approached the coast.
Met Office

“We have had situations where tropical hurricanes have come fairly close, but not very often.

“The hurricanes, as they move further north, they weaken. To have a proper hurricane you have to have very warm tropical seas. In this particular case, because we had a warm stream of air, it lasted a lot longer.

“As we get slowly warmer temperatures, it’s more likely to happen.

“Climate change could make hurricanes more frequent further north,” he said, but added there is much more variation which can affect the hurricane’s path and development – not just warmer air.

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