What are the four tests the Government will use for England’s roadmap out of lockdown?

April Roach @aprilroach2822 February 2021

The Government has set four key tests which must be met before England can move through each phase of its journey out of lockdown.

Boris Johnson is set to chair a virtual meeting of his Cabinet on Monday morning to discuss the road map out of lockdown and he will then unveil the details to Parliament in the afternoon.

The Prime Minister will also outline the four key tests which ministers will use to assess the impact of unlocking in England at each stage.

Ahead of his Commons address, Mr Johnson said: “Our decisions will be made on the latest data at every step, and we will be cautious about this approach so that we do not undo the progress we have achieved so far and the sacrifices each and every one of you has made to keep yourself and others safe.

“We have therefore set four key tests which must be met before we can move through each step of the plan.”

Here we take a look at what it all means:

What are the four tests?

  1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
  2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
  3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
  4. The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.

How close are we to currently meeting the four tests?

Downing Street said the tests are currently being met, allowing the first relaxation to take place on March 8.

Coronavirus: Deserted Tier 4 London

London Tier 4
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March 8 is also the date by which the top four priority cohorts for vaccinations will have some immunity because three weeks will have passed since the first dose.

What will reopen first?

The details have yet to be revealed but the Prime Minister said the priority has always been getting children back to school.

He said ways for people to reunite with loved ones safely will also be prioritised.

People exercise in Hyde Park on Sunday during the third nation-wide lockdown
Getty Images

Outdoor settings, where the risk is known to be lower, will be opened before indoor ones.

It is understood that, from March 8, people will be permitted to have socially distanced one-to-one meetings with others outdoors in a public space.

This means friends and family members could sit down for a coffee or have a picnic in the park, something not currently allowed under lockdown.

The changes are expected to be rolled out in four stages. Before each new step the Government will look at the Covid-related data to assess what impact the relaxing of measures has had so far.

Will restrictions be eased in some parts and not others?

Measures will be eased, step-by-step, across the whole of England at the same time because the virus is viewed to be fairly uniformly spread across the country.

Have the experts said anything about how things might have to proceed?

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the Government will have to leave room for “highly local” interventions.

He told Times Radio on Sunday: “I think they are going to have to keep the possibility of having much more targeted interventions in certain areas.”

Fellow Sage member Professor John Edmunds has said rapid easing could lead to a surge in hospital admissions “and indeed deaths”, and placed emphasis on vaccinations.

He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “We’re all at risk and we can all spread the virus, and so until we’ve all been vaccinated – I include children here – then there is going to be significant risk of a resurgence.”

Asked about a phased reopening of schools, he said that, purely from an epidemiological viewpoint “it’s always safer to take smaller steps and evaluate”.

And what about health organisations?

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said there was a “pretty clear view” that the number of coronavirus infections “needs to come down to around 50,000” for the PM to consider easing lockdown,

Mr Hopson’s organisation, which represents NHS trusts, has set out four tests of its own, which it believes should guide easing: getting case numbers down, reducing pressure on the NHS, further strides in the vaccination programme and an effective strategy to control future outbreaks.

Additional reporting by PA Media.

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