How Labour could suffer from Ukip's lost tribe of supporters in London

Lost tribe: Nigel Farage
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Here is a figure to chill Jeremy Corbyn’s campaign team in London: They are defending seven key seats where the majorities are smaller than the number of people who voted Ukip in 2015.

That matters more than ever following the local elections, which gave evidence that about four in 10 Ukippers were switching to the Conservatives.

What happens to Farage’s lost tribe has become the most gripping question of the general election.

It looks likely to prove more decisive, for example, than the question that dominated the first few days of campaigning, whether Remain supporters would punish Theresa May in some key battlegrounds. There is not (yet) enough evidence on the ground to show how significant that will be.

Of the seven seats where Ukippers could, in theory, hold the balance, four are already lost to the Conservatives, according to our exclusive analysis today. A fifth, Hampstead & Kilburn, could follow. In each, it might take just one in three Ukip voters to turn blue to change the result. But Eltham, a Labour stronghold since Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, would also be “kippered” if half the 6,481 Ukip voters of two years ago turn Tory. Even Jon Cruddas, with a 4,980 majority in Dagenham & Rainham, cannot feel safe with 12,000 Ukip voters potentially on the loose.

Don’t for a moment assume he is doomed — Mr Cruddas campaigns hard on the issues these voters care about. But Mr Corbyn’s leadership ratings will also be on the ballot paper.

A note of caution. Our analysis is based on our YouGov poll of Londoners, combined with private reports from local battles, using UK-Elect software to calculate possible outcomes. There are many wildcard factors we cannot yet predict. But the evidence of a Tory advance is obvious. On Monday, Mrs May went on the campaign trail in Harrow, just as David Cameron did in 2015. There was a crucial difference.

Mr Cameron was there to defend Bob Blackman, who duly increased his majority from 3,400 to 4,700.

But Mrs May was there to attack Gareth Thomas in Harrow West — a Labour seat since 1997 that is now in play. In two short years, London’s battleground map has been transformed.

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