Prison overcrowding 'has led to 11,000 criminals going free'

13 April 2012

More than 11,000 serious criminals may be walking free because of softer sentences, according to Home Office statistics.

The figure comes from an analysis of official projections of the prison population made four years ago, before a series of measures were brought in that cut the numbers sent to jail.

• More pressure on Reid as Archbishop attacks 'worse than useless' jails

In 2003, a Home Office study forecast that if trends continued the prison population would leap from 72,800 to a record 91,200 by 2006.

The estimates pointed clearly to a serious overcrowding crisis because over the same period the maximum capacity of Britain's jails was due to increase by barely a fifth as much, from 74,000 to 77,500.

However, the prison population has actually been held down to 80,005 — which suggests 11,195 criminals who committed jailable offences have either avoided prison altogether or have been let out early.

Although the Government denies changing sentencing guidelines for judges, there have been a number of measures that critics say have been designed to stave off a crisis by encouraging the use of community sentences.

Shortly after the 2003 forecasts were calculated, based on the trends of criminality and courts at the time, there was controversy when the Lord Chief Justice issued new guidelines to judges that first time burglars be handed community sentences.

The Criminal Justice Act of 2003, billed as bringing in tougher sentences for violent and sex offenders, also introduced new "community orders" that promoted the use of non-custodial sentences, such as unpaid work and curfews.

And recently Home Secretary John Reid came under fire after he wrote to judges and magistrates reminding them that prisons were close to bursting and asking them to imprison only the most dangerous of offenders.

The row intensified when judges released two sex offenders, saying they would have jailed them but for Mr Reid's advice.

Another judge, Richard Bray, said politicians should wake up to the fact prisoners were reoffending "because judges can no longer pass deterrent sentences".

Shadow home secretary, David Davis, said the figures showed for the first time how many offenders were living freely who would have been locked up.

He said: "The public are paying the price of the Government's failure to address the chronic lack of capacity in our prisons.

The fact the Government have imprisoned 11,000 people fewer than predicted shows that there are thousands of offenders who should be in jail but are walking free.

"Not only will these people be free to commit more crime, they will have no chance of receiving any rehabilitation."

A Home Office spokesman denied that softer sentences were behind the figures.

He said that the 2003 study had produced "projections" rather than "predictions" and these had simply proved too pessimistic.

He said: "Predicting the prison population is not a precise science.

"Historical trends cannot be assumed to continue — what happens in reality can be very different, which is why we revise the projections every year."

The spokesman appeared to concede, however, that changes in sentencing had played a part.

He said: "The figures predate the 2003 Criminal Justice Act and subsequent independent sentencing guidelines."

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