It's still too early to write off Libya's rebels

12 April 2012

From the headlines, hopes for the Libyan revolution look on the brink of collapse. The rebel army is apparently made of straw soldiers, its leadership paralysed. Britain and its allies are at risk of sinking into a quagmire. But my experience on the ground taught me the rebel uprising itself is not the total basket-case being portrayed.

Colonel Gaddafi spent four decades obliterating any structure that could act as an alternative power base. He even ensured his sons were at each other's throats so that none had the support to challenge him.

That means everything to replace his regime was established from scratch. And, in that context, what the rebels have achieved within two months is little short of miraculous.

There are serious problems. I travelled with the revolutionary army and saw an enthusiastic band of amateurs with abysmal weapon skills. In many rebel-held areas shops were running short of basic supplies and too many key jobs were still in the hands of unpaid volunteers.

When I first arrived in Benghazi in late February there was a lot of excitement but little organisation. The previous city leaders had fled and no one knew who to turn to for key public services such as rubbish collection. Or, crucially, where to distribute the weapons being taken from abandoned army stores.

But within a matter of days a city council was in place; a week later an interim leadership that sought to bring all the liberated parts of Libya into one administration.

A draft constitution was written. A central bank formed. Training camps were established to teach the rudiments of military behaviour. Earlier this month the rebel territory even negotiated its first oil exports, a tanker leaving Tobruk for Qatar.

Posters went up appealing to civic-mindedness, calling on citizens to respect private and public property and avoid firing weapons in the city. Anecdotally, there is notably less crime than before the uprising, despite the lack of a police presence.

Present disillusionment with the Libyan revolution is as much due to the unrealistic expectations of what could be achieved as anything the rebels are actually doing. The speed of events in Egypt and Tunisia appears to have blinded people to the fact that Libya - and indeed Gaddafi - was going to be a very different nut to crack.

What the rebels need is time. Time to develop political structures that can accommodate the country's tribal and political strains. Time to train - with British help - a more effective army. Time to establish economic contracts and institutions.

The Nato coalition must ensure that the assistance they require is provided to do this. Not just by establishing the military protection and guidance that will stop Gaddafi reasserting his grip but by offering practical solutions in governance, law, finance and social welfare.

This would help ensure its civic successes have the necessary robustness to flourish - and enable the West to have an influence in their shape and scope.

It would also show Libyans in the Gaddafi-controlled west of the country that there is an alternative that does not involve the risk of national disintegration or anarchy.

And that, as much as any victory on the battlefield, will be fundamental in helping create a united Libya free from Gaddafi's lingering influence.

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