The Office for National Statistics vigorously defended its GDP estimate today from the phalanx of economists who cast doubt on the reliability of the figure.
City analysts have argued that the 3% contraction in the construction sector over the first three months of the year identified by official statisticians is implausibly large, given that recent business surveys have instead been pointing to an expansion.
But the ONS’s chief economist, Joe Grice, said he stood by the figures, pointing out the estimate is based on a survey of 8000 companies and had been rigorously compiled.
Grice also drew support from the fact that the chief executive of the Construction Products Association, Michael Ankers, has also judged that the sector shrank over the first quarter of the year.
The contraction in the construction sector dragged down Britain’s total growth rate during the quarter by 0.2%.
According to the ONS, the sector’s output collapsed in January, falling by 12.9%. There was moderate growth in February of 6.1%.
The ONS said output in March would have to be “exceptionally strong” to cause a revision to its latest quarterly growth figures.
“Commentators will be quick to question these numbers, and in particular the construction data,” said Azad Zangana of Schroders.
